🗞 4 Harsh Truths About Your P/L

WHILE YOU POUR THE JOE… ☕️

We just got the delayed jobs data this week, at 64k for November’s NFP.

This is not necessarily bullish for the markets, yet traders are lining up all over to buy any and all dips on the S&P 500 index.

Only because they see this as bad for the United States economy, and think that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates.

Yet,

PCE inflation readings are at 2.8% and rising over the past four months, all while the 10Y bond yield is hovering at 4.1% to 4.2%. 📈 

In other words, our real rates are somewhere between 1.3% and 1.4%.

Which means the Fed doesn’t have a lot of room to cut rates from here, unless there’s something really wrong in the markets.

If that’s the feeling you’re getting right now, especially in the AI trade theme, let me help you skip the waitlist for alternative assets (like art).

It’s where billionaires are going right now, so I guess it can’t hurt to diversify.

Even better,

If you’re a true trader at heart, then here’s a ticket to get 7 days free into our InvestiBrew Deal Room.

All members have seen 10%+ returns over the past month by matching our portfolio and having access to our Data Room (filled with Excel models and deep dive reports) ⬇️ 

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Speaking of being a trader at heart, let’s get on with today’s email 📧…

LIFE AS A TRADER
Truth #1: You’re in The Wrong Business

We all get into this business for the wrong reasons, and then we realize what it’s all about.

That’s why we stay.

What I realized when working at Goldman Sachs is that I am in the ideas business, not in the “analysis” and button-clicking business.

So let’s go over an idea-generation exercise real quick and help you pivot in the right direction:

Apart from the delayed NFP, we also got the retail sales data for the month of October 2025.

Given that consumers are now more concerned with the value of the products and services they buy than with price, I want to focus on companies that fit this profile.

Specifically in the furniture industry, which saw sales increase by 2.26%, the largest monthly increase for the month.

Now here is where truth #2 comes into play, and it’s probably the one where most retail traders go wrong in this case.

Truth #2: A Different Game

We have all been taught to look for the discounted stocks in the market as part of the traditional “value investing” strategy lot of furus and investment legends like to taunt.

However, the market’s fabric has changed over the past decade, at an accelerating pace, to draw out the alpha in this strategy.

Think about it…

Big investors, accredited ones specifically, have access to private equity deals in companies that can command 10-30x higher valuations for pennies on the dollar.

We, mortals, have to settle for investing in public equities, often avoiding the “expensive” ones.

And that’s where most of us pay the price.

Here’s one example in a long/short equity trade we just exited for the InvestiBrew Deal Room:

Following the same idea-generation system, I gave you a trade in the transportation sector, where the data was overwhelmingly bullish.

Now here’s where most go wrong ⬇️ 

A stock like Landstar (LSTR) looked “expensive'“ for most retail traders, at a forward P/E of 21.2x while most others fell to a 14.4x average.

At the same time, Canadian National Railway (CNI) would’ve looked great for most at a discounted multiple of 15.1x.

For reasons we discuss in our free 5-day email crash course on long/short equity, this is the sort of setup you always want to keep around in your portfolio.

Truth #3: Size Matters

Every value investor in the audience likes to find those safe and stable companies, which often come at a significantly larger market capitalization.

In the LSTR / CNI example, note that there is a $78 billion difference in size between the two companies, and we always choose to buy the small one while shorting the large one as a hedge.

This is because most of the “smart” money is doing the exact same thing.

In fact, during the quarter that we held this trade, LSTR saw $278 million in institutional buying with only $157 million in selling.

On the other hand, Canadian National Railway reported $2.03 billion in sales with only $1.79 billion in buying.

So you can probably guess why our hit rate is so high (like 87% high) on most of the deals we’ve been pitching inside the Deal Room.

While most other traders would’ve preferred to be in a stock like Canadian National Railway, due to its size and discount, professionals know that the odds of making money and staying away from the big “manipulators” are in smaller companies.

Not only smaller ones, but the premium stocks everyone is scared of buying because they’re “expensive”.

I can’t bring this point home enough, because it’s what stops most of you from achieving success.

There’s idea generation, and then there’s stock picking.

Master both, and you can begin to compound your money (like our 10% monthly performance inside the Deal Room portfolio).

Truth #4: Choices Have Consequences

Now here’s the other big part of this business, and that’s the emotional side.

Where your P/L goes, so does your mental state, and it can ruin you on really big green or red days.

So here’s where the real trading “psychology” comes into play, and it’s as easy as understanding the numbers behind what you trade.

Here’s an example in shares of MercadoLibre (MELI) recently:

When MercadoLibre hit a 6.0% move in overall volatility on November 20th, I decided to start looking into a potential reversal in the stock.

It was screened out as one of those premium stocks, and even though its market cap is big enough, some of the players we mentioned aren’t really interested in international names right now.

That’s more edge for you.

Now there’s a very important thought behind this 6% move.

As you can see, a 6% move either way is very unlikely for MELI.

In real terms, there’s a 3.4% probability of this happening over the past five years’ worth of data.

So you now have a bias in the macro data, bullish for consumer discretionary names, in which MercadoLibre is a premium stock.

Then, on an entry level, you understand where the ranges fall and where you can act like a sniper.

ZERO chart analysis, no need to be emotional when you know the numbers and their meaning by heart. 🧠 

When you make decisions based on pure calculation rather than emotion, your trading performance improves, as we have proven repeatedly in our content.

Otherwise, you will never achieve full consistency and compound your money over time.

If you’re not satisfied with where your P/L is, I suggest you start by studying where you fall behind on:

1. Idea Generation (technical analysis and copy trading don’t count)

2. Stock Selection

3. Risk Management

4. Emotional Exposure

After you do that,

Let’s make your next choice count for the better, because all your P/L really reflects is the net effect of all the choices you’ve made so far.

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To your success,

G 🫰