🗞 If You Can Afford This, You're Rich

WHILE YOU POUR THE JOE… ☕️
Tariff Man Chooses Retaliation

While everyone expected the S&P 500 to sell off hard on the retaliatory tariff announcement from Trump, we came in last minute and saved your day. ❤️ 

How?

After starting the first half of the day with a bearish bias running up to this announcement, we spotted a shift in the macro and order flow, suggesting that the market wasn’t actually going to dump.

And as the tweet said, a lot of people were trapped selling at $6100, thinking that it would go down again, and if everyone is crowding a single view, then will it really happen?

Speaking of crowds, let’s get on with today’s email 📧…

EXPENSIVE PROTEIN
White / Brown Gold

This week has been crazy filled with data, CPI, PPI and now retail sales data coming out in about an hour and a half.

So, in case you missed it, here’s the recap from InvestiBrew:

• CPI: Came in hotter to create a small flash crash in the market, but since inflation only pushed in rent and services (not the real economy), the market shook it right off.

• PPI: Hotter as well, though we think this is a good thing when you take out one item that was an outlier, since it likely means the new orders in PMI data are starting to push costs higher as a result of demand breakouts. 📈 

By the way, that PMI theme is the entire premise of our latest YouTube video. In there, you’ll spot the broader rotation happening in the NASDAQ and S&P 500 this year.

It will make (or break) your trading year, so we want to make sure you come out a winner from this theme. Which is exactly why we’re giving you a free copy of the Excel models we use to break down PMI data, as well as a PDF guide to follow along the video.

No strings attached, it’s already yours below. That’s not all though, you’ll also get an ATR sheet copy later this week to time trades like we do live in our Twitter.

Now back to PPI.

Egg prices are going to insane new highs, both as a function of tight supply in fertilizers and chicken feed (organic), as well as a recent influenza breakout tightening supply even further.

Now, most furus would stop here and tell you to expect higher prices at your favorite brunch place when your lady friend wants to eat out or how to make the most of a high-protein diet (we’re carnivores at InvestiBrew). 🍖 

But, that’s not why you’re subscribed.

You’re subscribed because you want to get the creme de la creme, so here’s how you can make some money from this sudden egg price spike: 👀 

Out of all the stocks that we think are exposed in some form or another with this egg business, it’s clear that we should focus on Cal-Maine Foods stock and Beyond Meat stock.

Here’s the main difference between these two deals:

• $CALM: This one has a major discrepancy between how much EPS growth Wall Street expects in 2026 vs how much the market is willing to pay for those earnings in a forward P/E basis. We see it as bullish at the right price. 🎯 

• $BYND: Without any EPS to speak of, we focused on the massive P/S premium the market is paying for this stock, which we think is the result of consumers potentially looking for alternatives to expensive chicken and eggs.

Considering Beyond Meat has earnings coming up soon, and already trades at an attractive level, we’ll cover that one in today’s post. ⬇️ 

TRADE OF THE WEEK
What’s to Like?

This, this is about the only thing I like about $BYND, as a dedicated carnivore I just find it insulting that these people dared to poison us with their fake meat. 🙄 

But, I’m also a trader, so money is money.

What you see above is the $BYND market/volume profile, and the first thing you should note is that there hasn’t been any significant volume at today’s level.

Then you can see the big volume profiles at $3.75 and $5.0 per share, which can be attributed to a few institutional buyers accumulating some positions. Such as:

• Geode Capital

• Charles Schwab

• Bank of New York Mellon

Considering that these institutions will likely need a liquid level to adjust their positions, we have the volume point of control (VPOC) of $6.25 as the first initial target, which could then run up to the volume cutoff at $8.0 a share. ✅ 

As always, all of the financial analysis and DCF is boiled down to where the market really wants the stock to trade (unless we were looking at this stock as a long-term investment).

Wall Street analysts seem to be thinking along the same lines of price targets, and remember there has to be a reason for the market to be willing to pay such a steep premium for the company’s sales.

That reason might become clear during the upcoming quarterly earnings announcement for the company. 📅 

Given that the stock trades as low as 32% of its 52-week high, the risk/reward seems to be reasonable down here, especially as accumulation signs have been spotted as well. 🫰 

GO AND MAKE IT HAPPEN
Stand Out

With the trade reversal we had earlier today in the S&P 500, we can credit a couple of things for our success in making money on both the downside and upside.

One of them was order flow and volume analysis, and the other to understanding what the crowd was trading and expecting. Never go with the masses.

Today’s book recommendation 📖 can help you understand the mathematical and psychological factors behind crowded thinking and, therefore, crowded markets.

To your success,

G. 🥃