🗞 A Contrarian Restructure to Your Portfolio

WHILE YOU POUR THE JOE… ☕️

Something just broke the AI trade, maybe forever…

You all know I am short shares of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) since $309 for reasons discussed in this newsletter and YouTube video. 📉 

As is custom for our followers, we weren’t far apart from the institutional timing side of things, after all, you joined because I bring the Goldman Sachs edge right to your inbox.

Anyway, enough about me.

Peter Thiel just sold his entire NVIDIA (NVDA) stake this week, along with 76% of his shares in Tesla (TSLA).

He’s not alone:

• SoftBank also sold out of NVDA

• Michael Burry is back on the ropes like 2008 as his entire portfolio is set up with NVIDIA and Palantir (PLTR) short positions

What I’m trying to tell you is this…

Markets are about to become unrecognizable compared to the 2020-2025 run we’ve seen.

Which is where knowing how to hedge and generate ideas can come to save your neck in the coming quarters.

Lucky for you, I’ve made an entirely free 5-day email crash course on these topics.

Sign up today for your first lesson ✅ 

Speaking of changing markets, let’s get on with today’s email 📧…

CHANGING HANDS
Money is About to Rotate

Since 2014, there have been only three times that the net commercial positioning for the Dollar has gone negative.

2017, 2020, 2025.

While I would have agreed with this view in late 2024, I think the next 6-9 months don’t look as good for these currency bears.

And that’s a massive opportunity for you to take advantage of in that timeframe.

Here’s why:

Policy Just Doesn’t Fit Anymore

We all saw the writing on the wall…

The Fed was set to cut rates this year, sending the Dollar into lower territory while pushing risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin into all-time highs. 📈 

Within Forex, this is also why we told you to buy the EUR/USD at $1.03 and pulled out at $1.18.

Today looks a lot different.

• The Dollar had priced in more rate cuts than are actually set to come in

• Inflation at 3% is too high to keep the Fed cutting cycle going for longer

• Other Central Banks are cutting still, strengthening the Dollar

So being a contrarian, I want to start buying the Dollar through other currencies and take advantage of the pain these shorts are about to run into.

But,

We’re equity traders first, and I’m guessing that so are you.

How a Stronger Dollar Affects Equities

Let’s start with the strengths that a rising dollar brings out to the markets.

If you’re part of our flagship program The Sovereign Trader, then you know I am turning bullish on:

• Transportation

• Retail

• Wholesale

The Slack channel members are getting my entire industry breakdowns, stock picks, and portfolio builds as part of their package while they learn to do this on their own.

If that’s not you, that’s okay, let’s break this down ⬇️ 

A stronger Dollar will have a massive effect on domestic consumption, as the Average American will see their budgets stretch further (as long as they outpace inflation).

Considering the $DXY has gone up by 1.4% on the past quarter, maybe this sticky inflation won’t be so much of an issue after all.

But it doesn’t end there.

We also have the ongoing tariff situation, helping boost domestic production and demand and accelerating this entire theme forward.

We can already see some of this dynamic paying off in retail, with shares of On Holding (ONON) rallying by over 25% on earnings last week. 🔥 

As far as wholesale and transportation, there are plenty of deals already in place for you to take.

But,

Those have been reserved for our WhatsApp Deal Room members, with benefits like:

• Live portfolio updates with entry/exits

• Full Excel financial and valuation models

• Entire thesis and research notes a la Goldman Sachs

And much more, so here’s the deal:

You can get 7 days for free right now, take us for a spin, and cancel any time ✅ 

Other Bullish Setups

With a strong Dollar also comes stronger domestic tech, but here’s how this time is different for the next leg of big tech upside:

There’s a specific dynamic happening right now in stocks, as the $IVE / $IVW spreads begin to turn around.

Interest for value stocks is back up, while growth names start to take a back seat.

But,

We haven’t seen any price action from Crude, which is typically the mirror image to this spread.

• When growth outperforms value, Crude is supposed to rally

Yet, despite this spread falling since April 2025, markets aren’t really buying into the growth story.

Which is why I want you to focus on high FCF companies in tech, at discounts preferably.

Such as: ⬇️ 

And,

So far, you know to buy $XLY consumer names and some discounted tech.

But what about the shorts?

An Eye on The Dollar

Going back to our bullish Dollar setup, you can expect some companies also to begin suffering a bit here.

Combining tariffs with the currency headwind, here’s a filter you can use to scan for potential opportunities to hedge your portfolio:

• Large Caps ($50bn plus) with heavy international sales exposure

Why?

As international sales take a hit due to this currency exchange rate shift, domestic sales won’t make up the difference to keep margins and growth where they should be.

Also known as going ex-growth, which threatens EPS forecasts and valuations.

Some names I’d consider using as a short hedge are: ⬇️ 

1. Procter & Gamble (PG)

2. Colgate Palmolive (CL)

3. 3M (MMM)

4. McDonald’s (MCD)

5. Applied Materials (AMAT)

All told, I’m not saying this is going to happen tomorrow, or even next month.

But what I can say is save this post for later, to remind yourself of what sort of areas you can rotate in (and out) of in the market, especially if the volatiltiy we’re beginning to see sticks around for longer.

Until then.

To your success,

G 🫰 

GO AND MAKE IT HAPPEN
Let’s Wait and See

That $ONON hit was nice, but here’s something else.

Inside our Deal Room, I gave out a signal to buy shares of La-Z-Boy (LZB) stock earlier this week.

The stock went up 10% on earnings last night. 📈 

What’s more, I also gave those guys Valvoline (VVV) over the past couple of weeks.

They’re about to report earnings this morning, so let’s see what that brings us.

By the way, you can read my entire thesis on it through this SeekingAlpha piece I wrote ⬇️ 

To your success,

G. 🥃