🗞 Why You Keep Getting Stopped Out (And How to Stop it)

WHILE YOU POUR THE JOE… ☕️

You know how much I like to generate ideas from real data. 💡 

Right now, data on U.S. building permits show me something very interesting. The largest share of permits always goes to two regions on average:

• South Region

• West Pacific Region

Because building permits are now below a long-term balance (throwing the industry into depression), the risk/reward in buying a rebound becomes too attractive to ignore.

Specifically in the South (like Florida, the Carolinas, and Georgia).

This is where I have found a specific REIT in the timber and lumber manufacturing industry, one that offers over 50% upside and a 13.3% dividend (without being a trap). 📈 

A deal that will be broken down and pitched to our Deal Room members this week, a deal you can gain access to inside your 7 Day Free Trial below. ⬇️ 

Going back to markets, which are beginning to get choppy, let’s touch on why you keep getting stopped out in your trades.

And how to stop it.

Speaking of choppy markets, let’s get on with today’s email 📧…

POLISHING YOUR SKILLS
Day in The Life

All professionals in trading and finance know that this little bell drives most decisions in the industry, even if they don’t consciously know it.

The normal distribution bell curve is something that is also present in the stock market, in more ways than you and I can imagine.

As you read through this concept, I want you to keep the following in mind (which may sound obvious): ⬇️ 

• Financial markets aren’t fixed in nature; they flow and change day by day

Therefore, you can’t approach them with a fixed strategy, like technical analysis.

Saying I will buy at this “support” or “resistance” level, or because of a certain pattern, is futile.

It’s like placing a black or white shade on your decision-making, leaving zero gray areas, and this is why you keep getting stopped out on trades, because stop losses are also a fixed decision.

Let’s cover the normality of price moves and how they can help you time your entries better. ✅ 

Also, anything that steps outside of these normality ranges is exactly where you can decide to close a losing trade if needed, zero emotion or doubt, just raw data.

For example, here’s the daily returns distribution for the S&P 500:

Notice how similar this looks to the statistical normal distribution.

If you’re a day trader, you can follow this curve and get much better average win ratios and percentage returns than a pure “technical” trader.

This is why professionals barely look at charts, we focus on data instead.

Now here’s a real-world example in shares of MercadoLibre (MELI) ⬇️ 

MercadoLibre is a stock that was pitched inside our Deal Room, where members received not only my deep dive financial / valuation model, but also the broken-down strategy when it comes to my entry and exit targets.

I want to take you back to December 16th, 2025.

That’s the day I chose to buy, and I told my members to do the same.
It’s also the day MercadoLibre stock bottomed out (at least for now).

I used ZERO technical analysis; in fact, the only thing I used from this chart is the volume profile (turquoise shaded area underneath the bar chart), but we’ll get to that later.

First, let me tell you about volatility and returns:

Two things that led me to consider MercadoLibre stock a buy that day:

1. The high to low range was a negative 3.4%

2. This meant a move that only takes place 3.1% of the time

In other words, the odds were pretty good that we were approaching a potential turnaround sooner than expected.

Now let’s put this into perspective:

Here’s my table for the average true range (ATR) on MercadoLibre stock.

Note that on December 16th, we reached a high of 3.5% (above the five-year range of 3.4%). 👀 

So,

Combining the daily down move, which only happens 3.1% of the time, with a seasonal expansion in ATR beyond historical limits.

Taking this trade becomes a game of probabilities and odds, not an emotional take based on a chart pattern.

All told, the stock went from a low of $1,906 to a recent high of $2,006 within a single week.

Roughly 5% returns, still not a single chart was analyzed. 🔥 

Let’s top this all off with a market profile insight to help us put it all together ⬇️ 

The last piece to this entry puzzle is the market profile, which is just a measure of where the most and least volume/time has taken place per price.

Note that it also appears to follow a normal distribution pattern.

This way, you can combine a price range where not a lot of volume/time has been transacted as a “low probability” area.

In other words, where the market doesn’t want to trade, or where it shouldn’t trade.

Let’s recap:

• A 3.1% probability move to the downside

• An ATR expansion beyond what’s normal range-wise

• Hitting a thin market profile zone for quick reaction

It all resulted in a 5% move to the upside in one week. ✅ 

Like this trade, we have taken dozens of others this month for a portfolio return of just over 10% and counting.

Some Deal Room members are up much more than that from using options on the ideas I’ve sent in there.

Join us with a 7 Day Free Trial, zero risk to you, and worst case, you end up learning methods like this one and many others along the way.

That said, I hope you had a nice Christmas Day. I can’t wait to see you in my next issue for another breakdown of what’s happening in markets and other opportunities that we’re able to find in this broader rotation.

To your success,

G 🫰