🗞 Are You Done Yet?

WHILE YOU POUR THE JOE… ☕️
I Can’t Today

So President Trump and Xi were supposed to get on a call today to discuss the current tariff rollout, which so far is a 10% on both ends of the trade. 💥 

However, it seems like they were both too busy to discuss the fate of literally everyone’s savings and retirement funds.

That being said, this is going to be a perfect environment for traders, as Trump's volatility will create major opportunities nearly weekly, as we’ve already seen recently.

Speaking of opportunities, let’s get on with today’s email 📧…

FISH IN A BARREL
It’s Never Been Easier

What you’re looking at here is the bottom.

The bottom for manufacturing in the United States, which just saw its first expansion reading in over 28 months, and as you can see in blue there, new orders really took off in January. 📈 

Looks like industries are starting the year on the right foot by preparing for this lower dollar regime. But get this: most of the market is still hung up on inflation and the higher dollar theme.

So, we’re here today reminding you of a couple of things: 👀 

First is the fact that pretty much all the big industries in manufacturing are reporting lots of demand, even above normal for January.

Here’s the problem though.

As more demand for domestic products come in, the strong dollar might pose as a potential risk to continued business activity in these areas, as foreign buyers will see their relative buying power decrease.

That’s also why President Trump has expressed his intention to bring down interest rates to tackle this strong dollar regime. 📉 

If this weren’t the case, then we wouldn’t see these developments in manufacturing data.

There’s another thing that also popped next to new orders, and that’s the employment activity in manufacturing.

Connect the dots and you get this:

• Demand is rising as tariffs throw the country into a domestic capacity and supply chain environment.

• This demand is already causing new orders from domestic and overseas customers to come in.

• Businesses are preparing by upping their available staff.

Once again, you can refer back to our previous post made about this entire effect being a potential result from tariffs.

One final piece of data I want you to look at here..

This is the spread between $IVE / $IVW (value vs growth stocks), and as you can see we’re back to early 2022 levels. 📅 

It matters because we’re going to be headed into a rotation out of growth pretty soon, especially as you see stocks like $GOOGL and $AMD selling off despite good earnings beats last night.

So here’s the gist, if the market is going to start looking for stocks that haven’t yet reflected future growth in their prices, then where do you think they’ll be found?

Of course in manufacturing after the 28-month contraction, but which industries specifically?

Here’s our take on that:

The top breakouts in new orders are a great place to start digging for stock ideas.

Don’t worry—we’ll soon bring you a full, broken-down pitch on our YouTube channel, so make sure you’re subscribed and on the lookout for it! 🎥 

TRADE OF THE WEEK
Emergency Dip

So last night Advanced Micro Devices sold off on earnings, but it honestly shouldn’t have. 📉 

We understand that the market is a bit scared on semiconductor names after that crazy DeepSeek debacle with Nvidia, but some things just don’t change.

Such as the current ways markets are pricing the stock compared to other peers like ASML and Taiwan Semiconductors.

We chose to exclude Nvidia and Intel from this comp pool because their EPS growth projections and valuation multiples are significantly different. 👎️ 

That doesn’t take away from the fact that. even on a closer size comparison it looks liked AMD is not only set to deliver the most EPS growth, for the lowest price relative to its 52-week high. 🔥 

More than that, its PEG ratio for 2026 is among the lowest here next to Intel, meaning that the stock is very cheap compared to how much it’s looking to grow its EPS by in 12 months from now.

Going to steal this from Twitter, but here’s my point.

Do you see how AMD just completely blew out every single metric here? double-digit growth across the board doesn’t sound like the sort of stock that should be down right after.

And we don’t think the market had already priced it in given the PEG ratios, so not saying buy right away, but if the volume and price action looks right at the open this morning, I think a swing back to $125+ can be reasoned with. 🤷‍♂️ 

One last thing here on the volume profile.

We see a sensible price target if the morning price action is good enough to be set at the $160 to $180 mark. 🎯 

Probably going to be a multi-quarter swing here, so just be wary of the slower payout with this one.

And as always, it looks like we’re right in line with what Wall Street analysts are thinking. 🫰 

NOW GO AND MAKE IT HAPPEN
Don’t Fool Yourself

What you saw today was a sort of global macro breakdown, where economic data and narratives can lead you to make some profitable conclusions in the market.

However, this is only the tip of the much bigger iceberg, but today’s book recommendation 📖 is a classic that can get you started in a much better direction when it comes to the world of global macro.

To your success,

G. 🥃